Resale Value

[BenBaad]

So, my finances will not be as “plush” as I was hoping by delivery time, change in work situation.
Some of my “non financial advisor” friends are strongly recommending I not take delivery of the car.
Obviously no one can predict the future, but I’m curious what people opinions are on the situation. If I do take delivery, and the payment is too much, am I gonna get bent over on resale?
Been dreaming about the car since I got the reservation, but don’t want to get in a shitty situation.
Appreciate any input

 

[Nino313]

If the chip shortage makes a delay between the first 500 and the rest, I can see it being worth more than you paid. Currently people are taking delivery of C8 corvette's and turning around and selling them right back for 90-100k

 

[Ungwei]

My question is, would it make sense, if one will be partly financing the car, to get a loan approved once the car is being built? I'm a bit concerned about interest rates increasing soon.

 

[RDATLTE]

So, my finances will not be as “plush” as I was hoping by delivery time, change in work situation.
Some of my “non financial advisor” friends are strongly recommending I not take delivery of the car.
Obviously no one can predict the future, but I’m curious what people opinions are on the situation. If I do take delivery, and the payment is too much, am I gonna get bent over on resale?
Been dreaming about the car since I got the reservation, but don’t want to get in a shitty situation.
Appreciate any input

Resale value is as simple as supply vs demand. If there are Blackwings sitting on dealers lots being marked down, that will have a very negative impact on resale values. If on the other hand, new supply is low, resale value will be higher.

 

[Tall Steve]

I hope it works out for you Ben!

 

[jdpeake]

Ben the optimistic side of me says resale will be very good. My dealer is saying the same thing. However no one will know until it comes time to sell one. There is a gamble here but I’d be betting even if resale isn’t fantastic it’ll still be strong so a small loss might not be a hardship? I’m hoping you live your dream. Life is short.

 

[Davel518]

I think in the short term at least you're in good shape. Car prices are supposed to keep rising for various reasons including raw materials cost beyond just the chip shortage. Car rental companies are actually buying in the used market because they sold off so much of their fleet.

In the longer term who the hell knows. EV could take over sooner than we think, which may be good or bad for resale prices. If gas goes high enough that could start to matter, even in this segment.

 

[jdpeake]

Last car and driver had a short recap of their long term test on tesla 3. At 23k miles they figure it costs them about $9 per gallon to charge car. Also have already lost 7% of battery life. Doesn’t bode well for ev’s with these numbers. And let’s not forget no one is talking about the disposal of toxic batteries.

 

[Davel518]

Do you have a link to this? Sorry just being lazy. The $9/gallon part is very interesting, I'd love to see what went into this number. Totally agree on battery disposal - we haven't gotten into that yet. Also the environmental considerations of mining, that everyone so conveniently overlooks. I'm far from convinced on EV, other than that we're heading there, and if the market doesn't do it the government likely will.

 

[jdpeake]

Here is the brief recap they had in magazine.

 

[Davel518]

Wow. I had no idea the rapid chargers cost that much. Thank you.

 

[Ryan]

The quote from the C/D article is a little misleading. It's true it takes 9$ for the equivalent energy of a gallon of gas when using a supercharger. A gallon of gas is about 33.7 kWH of energy. But the whole car only holds 84 kWHs of energy. So "filling" the car up at a supercharger costs roughly 22 dollars. Gasoline is far more energy dense than batteries, but you only get about 40% of the chemical energy converted to work. The rest is wasted as heat, where as electric motors are very efficient. If they filled up at home in Michigan, the cost would have been about 11 bucks.

 

[Davel518]

So if we give electric motors 100% efficiency, we get pretty close to the same mechanical work per dollar, at current gas prices.

 

[Ryan]

To compare this you want to use dollars per mile. The following is based on Michigans 13 cents per kWH energy cost.

Charging at home = 84 kWH * 0.13 $/kWH / 300 miles = 0.0364 dollars per mile
Charging at supercharger = 84 kWH * 0.28 $/kWH / 300 miles = 0.0784 dollars per mile
Assuming 25 mpg and 3$ a gallon = 3 $/gallon / 25 mpg = 0.12 dollars per mile

The break even MPG compared to home charging is ~ 82 mpg.
The break even MPG for superchaging is ~ 38 mpg.

 

[Tall Steve]

I'm not sure you are going to get bent over on resale, but short of storing the car, I don't see the resale being great (I have never seen it on any limited edition car or bike and I have had plenty that were more unique than this car). Unfortunately, I think you really need to do the math and determine what your threshold is but I wouldn't bank on it being some miraculous number than can bail you out if you suddenly have issues with the payments.

LOL, I sure hope your wrong!!

 

[RupertH]

To compare this you want to use dollars per mile. The following is based on Michigans 13 cents per kWH energy cost.

Charging at home = 84 kWH * 0.13 $/kWH / 300 miles = 0.0364 dollars per mile
Charging at supercharger = 84 kWH * 0.28 $/kWH / 300 miles = 0.0784 dollars per mile
Assuming 25 mpg and 3$ a gallon = 3 $/gallon / 25 mpg = 0.12 dollars per mile

The break even MPG compared to home charging is ~ 82 mpg.
The break even MPG for superchaging is ~ 38 mpg.

Interesting- at typical 15K annual mileage, that puts the annual savings for a Tesla over a generic 25 MPG ICE as about $1,200/yr. That's a lot less than gets bandied around by the electric car crowd and the Elon fanboys...

I'm not sure you are going to get bent over on resale, but short of storing the car, I don't see the resale being great (I have never seen it on any limited edition car or bike and I have had plenty that were more unique than this car). Unfortunately, I think you really need to do the math and determine what your threshold is but I wouldn't bank on it being some miraculous number than can bail you out if you suddenly have issues with the payments.

Back on topic- I'd agree with MCG. I'd look at what you can absorb if things go sideways, and plan for a minimum 20% loss on the total. You're going to pay sales and gas-guzzler taxes, dealer prep/delivery/etc., and these are basically un-recoverable on resale.

If you can't afford to float a $20-30K loss in the event you have to sell suddenly at the going market rate, I'd probably have serious concerns.

Is that the most likely scenario? No. But considering the potential outcome is writing a $30K check? I'd want to have that $30K available.

 

[BenBaad]

Appreciate all the input. Pretty much listed all pros and cons/possibilities I was already thinking of. A third option would be trying to line up a buyer before I take delivery of the car.
This might be a little more difficult, especially trying to find someone who wants my exact build, VS them just waiting to order one to their exact spec.

 

[RDATLTE]

Appreciate all the input. Pretty much listed all pros and cons/possibilities I was already thinking of. A third option would be trying to line up a buyer before I take delivery of the car.
This might be a little more difficult, especially trying to find someone who wants my exact build, VS them just waiting to order one to their exact spec.

Technically and unfortunately, that would be a used car at that point.

 

[arod221]

Last car and driver had a short recap of their long term test on tesla 3. At 23k miles they figure it costs them about $9 per gallon to charge car. Also have already lost 7% of battery life. Doesn’t bode well for ev’s with these numbers. And let’s not forget no one is talking about the disposal of toxic batteries.

or the mining of raw material to make those batteries....somehow all the "green police" forget to mention that part.

 

[arod221]

Appreciate all the input. Pretty much listed all pros and cons/possibilities I was already thinking of. A third option would be trying to line up a buyer before I take delivery of the car.
This might be a little more difficult, especially trying to find someone who wants my exact build, VS them just waiting to order one to their exact spec.

you have one of the first 250 right? If so, maybe we could work a deal. I don't have one of the first 250 so maybe I could get your reservation and just change it to my build specs?