reasons I think (unfortunately) our Blackwing-5's won't be the 'collector cars' with huge resale over time some think.....

[tacosman]

The first and main reason is that for the most part all the cars that *do* become collector car classics that get a huge resale premium 5, 10, 15, 20, 25+ years later are cars where
it *wasn't* initially predicted. When the Integra-R or Nissan Skyline or the old supra tt's or even more recently with the manual cadillac ctS-V wagon came out, people weren't sayng "oh these cars are going to command a huge premium used down the line". Instead it just happened; it was organic and that was the beauty of it.

The fact that every review of the 22+ Blackwing-5 says that these cars are bound to wound up as collector favorites that will command a premium? That itself means they are more likely not to. Already I've heard a lot of owners saying things like "I don't want to put too many miles on it each year because of the collector potential". That mindset is going to affect the number of low mile great condition specimens that will be around 15-20+ years from now.

Another reason is that the fact that this will supposedly be the last RWD manual V8 blah blah blah sedan ever is what a lot of people are counting on will juice the collectible value.
But think about this- what is needed for an older car of a certain type to have a lot of collector value? There has to be a lot of demand for that. And if there is a lot of demand for such types of vehicles than to juice up the value of used versions, there is nothing to stop GM or whoever from deciding to go back to the past and make more ICE vehicles like that....even when the electric revolution has taken over. (barring govt regs of course banning them)

And finally, I think a lot of people aren't paying close enough attention to the supply curve here. Yes at this very moment total numbers of Blackwing-5's are fairly low. But we know the manual take rate is really high, and that's the one people are making predictions for. But most importantly, there are still *a bunch* of these cars still going to be built. How do we know? because GM has told us.....So the total number of manual Blackwings in the end is not going to be a super small nunber.....which is what is needed most of the time to produce such a situation. Think back again to the 2nd generation(I think?) CTS-V wagon manual. The take rate was *much lower* I believe for the manual then, and overall numbers of manual wagons were MUCH MUCH lower than what our manual blackwings will end up being. It's not the demand part of the curve that is producing super high prices for those manual
wagons(it's still a fairly limited group that wants them), but rather the supply side of things was so incredibly limited that even a little blimp in enthusiast demand can produce such a result.

none of this of course means our manual Blackwings are bad cars. I am getting mine this week and I'm excited. It's a car with some plusses and minues, and I'm excited to
see what it's like to drive and own. But based on all the above I'm certainly not expecting it to ever be a collectible type of car.

 

[sethsquire]

Respectfully disagree. The reason people are saying it's going to be a collectible is that we know with almost absolute certainty that the V8, manual rear wheel drive sedan will die with this car. Yes there's demand and they'll make a good handful of cars, but not so much demand because the cars are expensive and only idiots like us put our money where our mouths are and would actually buy these cars if given the chance. Some will be beat to shit or crashed. A certain niche of buyer will continue to want a v8 manual stupid fast sedan moving forward. With no new options, they will seek out the most modern car that fits the criteria. A car doesn't need to be an unexpected collectible in order to be a collectible in the first place.

Edit: That said, I see no reason not to pile miles on one's own car. These things aren't holding and certainly not appreciating for a good 5-10 years at least, especially while they're still being made.

 

[tacosman]

Respectfully disagree. The reason people are saying it's going to be a collectible is that we know with almost absolute certainty that the V8, manual rear wheel drive sedan will die with this car. Yes there's demand and they'll make a good handful of cars, but not so much demand because the cars are expensive and only idiots like us put our money where our mouths are and would actually buy these cars if given the chance. Some will be beat to shit or crashed. A certain niche of buyer will continue to want a v8 manual stupid fast sedan moving forward. With no new options, they will seek out the most modern car that fits the criteria. A car doesn't need to be an unexpected collectible in order to be a collectible in the first place.

Edit: That said, I see no reason not to pile miles on one's own car. These things aren't holding and certainly not appreciating for a good 5-10 years at least, especially while they're still being made.

how do we know that though? If 15 years from now when electric cars dominate the road(new and even used by that point to some degree maybe) if there is demand for a manual V8 RWD sedan(and remember demand is required for it to be a collectible anyways), who is to say GM or any maker won't produce such a car?

After all, that's what companies do- find what people want and try to make what they want so they will buy it. If there is a substantial or even substantial niche market for such a thing, someone would crank one out and make a quick buck.

Regardless of what GM or any other maker says, it is *impossible* to predict the models they are going to make in 2038. But it's reasonable to think they will try to produce cars for where there is a demand. We just can't predict where that is yet.....

 

[flipray]

If you're worried what a car is gonna be worth in 20 years, you're in the wrong hobby. Until we know what the production numbers will be at the end of the run and what happens in 15-20 years with availability of gas, will dictate demand. If gas prices continues to rise, demand for gas guzzling gas powered cars will drop.


You cant compare these to V2 Wagons, less than 2000 wagons were made in the 4 year run of it and less than 360iirc were manuals. They already made ~1640 5BW for MY22. Production should go till MY2025 atleast, I'd imagine we'd atleast hit 5K produced in the 4 year run.

 

[GTANotch88]

I think it was around 1767 wagons total and of those, about 514 with the manual.

 

[soulsea]

Don’t let the market distortion of the last two years fool you … 99% of cars don’t do as well as putting that money in an S&P index fund over time, including a manual V wagon.

There are a lot better ways to make money, including conservative investing that will mitigate a car’s depreciation while you enjoy the hell out of it.

Now if you want to stash away a car like a 5BW manual for a decade in order to enjoy it when everything else is a rolling toaster, then by all means have at it, but don’t do it for money.

 

[shbox]

Don’t let the market distortion of the last two years fool you … 99% of cars don’t do as well as putting that money in an S&P index fund over time, including a manual V wagon.

There are a lot better ways to make money, including conservative investing that will mitigate a car’s depreciation while you enjoy the hell out of it.

Now if you want to stash away a car like a 5BW manual for a decade in order to enjoy it when everything else is a rolling toaster, then by all means have at it, but don’t do it for money.

Listen to this person. He has lots of experience.

 

[565565]

Listen to this person. He has lots of experience.

Yes and clearly success too.

 

[PrimeTime]

Soft markets are often created in many business ventures by design. Cars certainly, have been in the fold lately as some of us have seen bieng recent buyers in the market. Prices certainly have spiked, ADM's, supply shortages, financing, competition etc.. all add to the enabling effect. The used car buyer's market especially, In my opine, those which paid some ridiculous amounts in the past 3 years or so for lower tier cars... were gouged for the most part. The market correction will be felt there the worst! Thats business, and informed buyers'/consumer's should make informed decisions. Then stand by it wherever it leads them.. And now, the market begins to correct and we see where it stabilizes for these types of cars ie; the BW's. That said, I'm ok with a numbered car of the BW's caliber....It's still a # car and fantastic at that... and so my expectations are certainly not to get rich on this car, but to enjoy it as much as I can and if, and when the time comes to move on the car returns equity. In one form or another. These cars, I believe can and will do just that. So if the collector cars are sought, check out Mecum's Auction this past weekend which just sold a Winged Daytona for 1.3 million dollars. It was about 4k new back in 69? Think they knew what was to come back then? Enjoy the moments, you just don't know. Change is inevitable, and for me I welcome it for now in my BW.

 

[668LT4]

I think a manual 5 will hold value rather well over the years, especially compared to different cars. That said, I have no illusions of selling it in 10+ years for a swoon of profit. I bought the car to drive. I'll turn 49 this year. I owned a manual Blackwing 4 for around 2 months and 2000 miles last year. I have had my 5 for 2 months and 850 miles (not bad for winter in Colorado). I have smiled more driving these 2 cars than all of my other cars combined. That is what it is all about for me. I will not limit driving to help resale. Tomorrow is promise to no one, and I will be driving my Blackwing every chance I get.

 

[Tuna]

I think it was around 1767 wagons total and of those, about 514 with the manual.

My V Wagon is a 2011, manual, Recaro, no sunroof car. It's got 54k miles now. I still drive it once a week whether it needs it or not.

 

[Davel518]

I honestly don't think ANY (or very very few) cars currently manufactured will ever become collectors items. The country just doesn't have the car culture it once did, and the current generation isn't going to be looking back at their childhood with nostalgia about now current vehicles. Obviously there are always some exceptions, but just not enough to drive up prices like moneyed baby boomers do for '40s-'60s cars. Another issue is that a big part of the interest in those cars is the mechanical nature, restoration, and ability to actually work on them. None of that is going to be practical on modern cars.

At the same time I am confident that these will depreciate at a slower rate than a large majority of other vehicles sold today, which combined with the amount of fun these are makes them a hell of a deal.

 

[OldGoat]

I bought my 5 because I love having almost 700hp with a 6MT, the styling, fits 6' adults in back seat, has a trunk, rides and handles better than almost anything out there. Did I mention almost 700hp with a stick?
I'm not a flipper, bought it to drive. Let my wife worry about it's value and resale after I'm dead and buried.

 

[jbawden]

There are plenty of vehicle options that will extract $100k from your bank account, but I feel comfortable that if something changed in my life and I needed to off load it, it's going to give a lot more of that money back than most anything else I can think of.

The world desperately lacks critical thinking skills, so I'm not surprised that flippers and long-term "investors" both share the same flawed understanding of transactional and opportunity costs.

On the other hand, how people enjoy their wealth is a highly personal decision. I think we all know the cheap coupon using millionaires and the zero net worth high-income earners. There are those that will plow miles on year round and others that will carefully meter the miles and the conditions they use their BW. Either is cool by me, but don't conflate the preservers with someone thinking about the BW as an investment.

 

[PrimeTime]

I know it's for auction. A good cause and write off. Who knows? Doesn't affect me one way or another right now, but this sold nicely.

 

[Joespenard]

3" COLT PYTHON good reference. $$ 30 years later.

 

[Speed Racer 007]

I bought my 5 because I love having almost 700hp with a 6MT, the styling, fits 6' adults in back seat, has a trunk, rides and handles better than almost anything out there. Did I mention almost 700hp with a stick?
I'm not a flipper, bought it to drive. Let my wife worry about it's value and resale after I'm dead and buried.

Amen brother

 

[quikag]

Amen brother

Amen to the Amen! If this car zeros out in 10 years, it'll be the best $100k I've spent. What an awesome machine. So smooth, so comfortable, but so damn fast and such great handling.

 

[1Evil55]

I remember a few years ago after they canceled Holden and our SS's potential at becoming a collectable. If you asked me a year ago when I traded mine in, I'd say it was definitely a collector piece as I just sold it after putting 105k on the clock and selling for 7g less what I paid new. Our BW's are on a similar course of small annual production numbers as well as a good potential for them to stop building after only a few years. I realize a year ago the used car market was beyond fucked. I don't see any major swings of things going back to anything we would considered normal only two years ago.

 

[Snowwolfe]

I remember back in the 1970's when Caddilac made the claim their Eldorado convertible would be the last convertible built.
What is old has a way of becoming new again.